Problem
In off-world construction, there is no room for 'trial and error' in the physical world. A single logic flaw in a construction sequence or an overlooked resource bottleneck results in mission failure and multi-billion dollar losses.
The Simulation Engine matters because it provides Risk Reduction. It allows the STC to fail thousands of times in a virtual environment so it can succeed once in the real one. It transforms the system from a linear pipeline into a closed-loop, iterative learning machine.
Solution
The Simulation Engine is the Prognostic Core. It acts as the final validation gate before the Knowledge Graph commits a design to the "Verified" state.
- Consumes: Environment, agent, module, and mission data.
- Produces: Performance metrics, failure probability distributions, and synthetic datasets.
- Interfaces: Feeds outcomes back into the Knowledge Graph to refine future design weights.
Method
The engine utilizes a Monte Carlo-based forecasting architecture:
- Physics-Based Constraints: Simulating real-world variables like gravity-induced stress, solar flux, and radiation.
- Stochastic Failure Injection: Randomly introducing "Black Swan" events (e.g., hardware glitches, extreme solar flares) to test system resilience.
- Time-Step Simulation: Running the mission over years at real-time speed to observe long-term resource depletion over decades.
Tools & Technologies
Diagrams / Visuals
[Process: Optimized Layout from RLP → Parallel Simulation Runs → Statistical Success Distribution]
Results & Outcomes
The Discrete Time-Step Runner is currently operational. It can simulate 72 hours of mission time in approximately 1.2 seconds, checking for resource violations at every 60-minute interval.
Current Credibility: The engine successfully identified planetary night power gaps, specifically the "Lunar Night Power Gap" in the phase 2 test case—a failure that was missed by the initial linear optimizer but caught by the simulation.
Next Steps
- Probability: Introduction of a monte carlo simulation along side module failure logic from deterministic to stochastic
- Improved Physics Engine: Implementing a number of physics logic including improved solar energy calculation, radiation, and module maintenance.